Hapoel Jerusalem BC vs Aris BC

Prediction

• Hapoel Jerusalem BC: 60%
• Aris BC: 40%

Pick: Hapoel Jerusalem BC (Medium confidence)

Match context

Two unbeaten sides meet in Jerusalem, both 5-0 after five rounds. Both played on 28 October, so there is no rest difference.

Recent form

Hapoel beat Rostock 94-73 and Riga 100-64 at home, then won on the road at Cedevita (75-64), Burgos (85-84) and Le Mans (90-83). Aris won at Le Mans 87-74 and Rostock 110-79, and beat Burgos 93-80, Tortona 88-68 and Cedevita 78-73 at home. Aris have the bigger margins, Hapoel have been close at Burgos but cleaner overall.

How they attack and defend

Aris average 91.2 points and concede 74.8; Hapoel average 88.8 and concede 73.6. Both are ahead by about 14-17 points a game. Hapoel have the slight defensive edge, Aris the scoring edge.

Quarter patterns

Aris win every quarter by at least 3.6 points on average, an unusually flat profile that shows no weak period. Hapoel build their lead early, winning the first two quarters by 4.8 and 5.4 on average, then slow slightly in the third (+1.4). Aris are the better side if the game is level at half-time.

Head to head

Last season's reports show Hapoel beating Aris 96-77 in Jerusalem in October 2025, and a separate report describes a road win at Aris during an 11-game winning run. I did not confirm the score of the second meeting.

Key players and availability

Harper, a high-scoring guard for Hapoel, is reported out for three to five months from late August, so his absence is likely, though no recent update was found. Kenneth Lofton Jr. (18.8 points, 6.8 rebounds across five games) is the main inside option. For Aris, Landers Nolley II averages 14.8 points in four games. The matchup is Hapoel's interior against Aris's wings.

The edge

Hapoel get the nod for home court and a slightly better defensive record, but this is close to a coin flip with a home tilt. The risk is Aris's balance: if Hapoel's first-half lead is under 8 at half-time, Aris's third and fourth quarters have been strong enough to take it.

Team news

• Harper reported out with thumb injury: Eurohoops reported on 28 August that guard Jared Harper tore a ligament in his right thumb in training and would need surgery, with a 3-5 month absence. No update on his return was found.