KK Cedevita Olimpija vs Bertram Derthona Tortona

Prediction

• KK Cedevita Olimpija: 52%
• Bertram Derthona Tortona: 48%

Pick: KK Cedevita Olimpija (Speculative confidence)

Match context

Round 6 in Ljubljana, with Cedevita still searching for a first Eurocup win after five games and Tortona on three wins from five. Both sides last played on 28 October, so rest is level. No confirmed team news for either side turned up before tip-off.

Recent form

Cedevita have lost five straight in the competition: 81-85 at Burgos, 64-75 at home to Hapoel Jerusalem, 79-89 at Riga, 66-84 at home to Le Mans and 73-78 at Aris. Tortona beat Le Mans 89-83, Burgos 89-79 and Rostock 86-83 at home, but lost 84-86 at Riga and 68-88 at Aris. The home-and-away split is the story: Tortona are 3-0 in their own hall and 0-2 away.

How they attack and defend

Cedevita have averaged 72.6 points and conceded 82.2, the lowest scoring of the two teams by a distance. Tortona average 83.2 and concede 83.8, so they are a team that lives in close games rather than controlling them. Neither side is separating itself at either end.

Quarter patterns

Cedevita have been outscored in every quarter on average, worst in the first (-4.2). Tortona also start slowly (-5.2 in first quarters) but finish strongly, outscoring opponents by 4.4 points on average in the fourth. If Cedevita lead late the visitors have shown they can reel a game in, though a slow start on the road could give the hosts a cushion.

Head to head

No recent meeting between these two turned up, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on.

Key players and availability

is the guard to watch for Cedevita, with David Skara, who signed an extension on 30 October, providing size and experience. For Tortona, Dante Maddox and Prentiss Hubb handle the creation. The decisive matchup is Cedevita's guards against Tortona's pressure in the first quarter, because that is when the visitors have been most vulnerable. Availability for both squads is unconfirmed.

The edge

A very close call. Cedevita get the narrow pick on home court and because the visitors have not yet won away from Tortona, but nothing in the recent run backs the hosts strongly. The scenario where this goes wrong is the one the numbers hint at: Tortona survive a slow start, then use their strong fourth quarters to take a first road win.

Team news

• Cedevita still looking for a first win: Cedevita have lost all five Eurocup games so far, the closest being 73-78 at Aris on 28 October and 81-85 at Burgos on 30 September.