Umana Reyer Venezia vs Šiauliai

Prediction

• Umana Reyer Venezia: 64%
• Šiauliai: 36%

Pick: Umana Reyer Venezia (Medium confidence)

Match context

A home game Venezia need after a mixed start, against a Šiauliai side that have won three of five. Neither side has confirmed team news.

Recent form

Venezia beat Frankfurt 104-72 and Türk Telekom 75-65, but lost 92-98 at Cluj, 79-90 at Roma and 80-82 at Tenerife. Šiauliai beat London 74-71, Türk Telekom 94-84 away and Roma 98-93, but lost 71-79 at Frankfurt and 75-94 to Cluj at home. Venezia's two defeats on 21 and 28 October came by 11 and 2 points.

How they attack and defend

Venezia average 88.7 points and concede 90.3, a high-scoring but leaky side. Šiauliai average 82.4 and concede 84.2. Venezia score more, but neither defence is strong.

Quarter patterns

Venezia are almost level in every quarter, so nothing stands out. Šiauliai win the first quarter by 3.8 on average but are outscored in the second (-1.2), third (-1.6) and fourth (-2.8), so they tend to fade.

Head to head

No recent meeting between these two turned up.

Key players and availability

Erick Green, 35 and signed in September to cover Rice, and Glynn Watson Jr. are the guards driving Venezia. Šiauliai's Cedric Henderson averages 16.7 points over three games and Dayvion McKnight is the main passer. The matchup is Venezia's guards against Šiauliai's perimeter, since the visitors need to win the opening quarter to be in the game. Rice's availability is unconfirmed.

The edge

The pick is Venezia. They score more, they are at home, and Šiauliai's pattern of fading in the second half suits a team that has been competitive late. It goes wrong if Šiauliai take their usual early lead and Venezia's defensive lapses allow the visitors to hold it.

Team news

• Rice injured, Green signed as cover: Sir'Jabari Rice suffered a compound fracture of the fifth metatarsal, reported on 11 September, and Venezia signed Erick Green as cover. No update on Rice's return was found.