Beşiktaş JK vs Kauno Žalgiris

Prediction

• Beşiktaş JK: 48%
• Kauno Žalgiris: 52%

Pick: Kauno Žalgiris (Low confidence)

Match context

Round 10 in Istanbul puts two teams on the edge of the play-in places together. Žalgiris are 10th at 5-4, the last of the play-in positions, and Beşiktaş are 11th at 4-5, one win and one place behind. Beşiktaş have won only one of their four home games, while Žalgiris are 3-2 away.

Recent form

Beşiktaş's last five: lost 82-100 at Hapoel, beat Bayern 95-87, lost 80-89 at Efes, lost 73-81 at home to Olympiacos, then won 103-101 at Virtus after trailing by 13 inside the last four minutes. Žalgiris lost 80-99 at Fenerbahçe and 70-85 to Efes, then beat ASVEL 105-85, Virtus 91-74 away and Partizan 87-80. The recent trend clearly favours the Lithuanians.

How they attack and defend

Beşiktaş have scored 810 and conceded 826 in nine games, about 90.0 for and 91.8 against, so they play fast and give plenty back. Žalgiris have scored 773 and allowed 756, about 85.9 and 84.0, which is a points difference of +17 against Beşiktaş's -16. The Virtus game showed the weak spot on the Turkish side, as they were out-rebounded 45-27 and still won only because Walker and Conor Morgan hit late threes.

Head to head

I could not find a recent EuroLeague meeting between these two clubs, so there is no head-to-head record to lean on. Both sides are working from this season's form alone.

Key players and availability

Lonnie Walker IV scored 30 points with seven threes from 11 attempts at Virtus, a EuroLeague career high and a Beşiktaş record in the competition, and he looked to be limping at times. Scottie Wilbekin averaged 17.0 points after six rounds and Jaylen Nowell scored 15 against Olympiacos. For Žalgiris, Jonas Valanciunas had 16 points and 8 rebounds against Partizan and led the league in rebounding after six rounds at 7.7, while Carsen Edwards averaged 17.2 points over the same stretch. Saben Lee had 12 points and 7 assists in the win over ASVEL.

The edge

Žalgiris are the pick by a small margin. They are the more settled side, they defend better, and Valanciunas should punish a Beşiktaş team that gave up a 45-27 rebounding gap last time out. The pick goes wrong if Walker gets hot from three again at home and Žalgiris miss Williams-Goss's ball handling for long spells. Beşiktaş's home record is poor, but their scoring average keeps them in reach of any result.

Team news

• Dotson, Korkmaz and Jeffries on the Beşiktaş absence list: The EuroLeague report published on 4 November had Devon Dotson ruled out for Rounds 8 and 9 and Furkan Korkmaz missing both of those games, although Korkmaz played in the Turkish League last weekend. DaQuan Jeffries has been out since a wrist injury in Round 1 that needed surgery. Lonnie Walker returned in Round 9 after missing Round 8. No tonight-specific report had been submitted when that article was written, so Dotson and Korkmaz are unconfirmed.
• Williams-Goss still out with a hamstring problem: Nigel Williams-Goss last played in Round 6 and is dealing with a hamstring injury, according to the EuroLeague report of 4 November. Žalgiris have won three in a row without him. No update specific to tonight had been filed.
• Žalgiris arrive on a three-game winning run: After heavy defeats at Fenerbahçe (80-99) and at home to Efes (70-85), Žalgiris beat ASVEL 105-85, won 91-74 at Virtus and beat Partizan 87-80. Beşiktaş won 103-101 at Virtus on Friday of Round 9 after trailing 97-84 with 3:47 left.