Olympiacos BC vs KK Crvena zvezda

Prediction

• Olympiacos BC: 63%
• KK Crvena zvezda: 37%

Pick: Olympiacos BC (Medium confidence)

Match context

This is the heavyweight game of the night in Piraeus. Olympiacos are 7-2 and second, with a 5-1 away record and 2-1 at home. Crvena zvezda are 6-3 and third, with a points difference of +80 compared with Olympiacos's +51. Olympiacos won last season's title according to Navarro, who spoke of needing to show respect to the reigning champion.

Recent form

Olympiacos won in overtime at Valencia (102-97) and at Barcelona (105-100), then lost 61-64 at home to Fenerbahçe, won 81-73 at Beşiktaş and beat Milan 84-78. Zvezda won 84-82 at ASVEL through a Chris Jones buzzer-beater, beat Paris 90-81, lost 82-85 in overtime at Partizan, then beat Maccabi 100-78 and Bayern 103-73.

How they attack and defend

Olympiacos score 87.8 and concede 82.1 per game (790 for, 739 against). Zvezda score 84.8 and concede 75.9 (763 for, 683 against), which is the second-lowest total allowed in the league behind Panathinaikos at 675. Navarro named Olympiacos's rebounding, second-chance points and two-point shooting as the areas Zvezda have to handle, and said his team needs to improve closing out on shooters.

Head to head

Olympiacos won 92-86 at home on 12 February 2026, leading 49-45 at the break, with Sasha Vezenkov scoring 23 and Jordan Nwora 21 for Zvezda. Zvezda had won 91-80 in Belgrade on 26 November 2025. The squads have changed since then, but both games were decided by a clear margin in the home side's favour.

Key players and availability

Vezenkov averaged 18.0 points after six rounds and scored 23 against Milan, where Codi Miller-McIntyre added 24. With Fournier, Montero and Dorsey out, more of the guard load falls on Miller-McIntyre and, if he plays, Konchar. For Zvezda, Chima Moneke had 15 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists against Bayern, with Nwora and Tyson Carter on 14 each and Koloko on 12. Chris Jones led the league in assists at 6.0 after six rounds, shared with Carlik Jones.

The edge

Olympiacos are the pick, but by less than the 71% the model started with, so the figure has come down to 63%. Home court, Vezenkov and a better rebounding side count for plenty, and the gap in winning record is real. The pick goes wrong if Olympiacos's thin backcourt cannot score against Zvezda's defence, as happened against Fenerbahçe when they scored 61, and Zvezda's wings get a clean look at the offensive end. A close game decided in the last two minutes would not be a surprise.

Team news

• Fournier, Montero and Dorsey missing; Konchar could debut: The EuroLeague report of 4 November lists Evan Fournier as last playing in Round 6 and not back, Jean Montero ruled out for six months after knee surgery, and Tyler Dorsey suspended by the club (he last played in Round 5). Nikola Milutinov returned in Round 9 after missing Round 8. John Konchar, signed on 22 October, is registered and could debut tonight.
• Motley left out of the Athens squad, Koloko available: Coach Ibon Navarro said Johnathan Motley was left out because he has not been performing as expected this season. Christian Koloko is in the squad after Zvezda sorted out the paperwork needed for him to enter the EU. Ebuka Izundu and Patrick Baldwin were not on the Round 9 roster, and their status tonight is unconfirmed.
• Short-handed Olympiacos lost 61-64 at home to Fenerbahçe: In Round 7 they led by 16 and lost, with Dorsey, Montero and Fournier all missing and a last possession to force overtime missed. They have since won 81-73 at Beşiktaş and 84-78 against Milan.