Ratiopharm Ulm vs EWE Baskets Oldenburg

Prediction

• Ratiopharm Ulm: 66%
• EWE Baskets Oldenburg: 34%

Pick: Ratiopharm Ulm (Medium confidence)

Match context

Ulm host Oldenburg on Halloween in the Bundesliga, with the visitors listed 11th at 3-3 and the hosts 14th at 2-4. Ulm played in the Eurocup on Tuesday, while Oldenburg have had a quieter week. Both clubs went out of the cup in the last 16.

Recent form

Ulm have lost four league games in a row, with wins only over Ludwigsburg and Hagen at the start of the season, but beat Lietkabelis 86-68 on Tuesday. Oldenburg have not won in four games, losing at München, to Hagen and to Bamberg. Both are searching for form.

How they attack and defend

Ulm scored 83.7 and conceded 80.3 per game last season, a reasonable net return. Oldenburg scored 82.7 and conceded 85.0. Ulm's defensive edge is the main on-paper difference.

Quarter patterns

Ulm won first quarters by 1.5 points and fourths by 1.2 last season, while Oldenburg lost first quarters by 3.0. The hosts' fast starts have usually been the difference.

Head to head

Two recorded recent meetings averaged a 29-point margin, a large figure. The sample is two games, so it is only a loose guide.

Key players and availability

Oldenburg are without Nicholas Tischler (finger fracture) and Ja'Qualyn Gilbreath (foot), with Le'Tre Darthard and Nate Johnson back in training and possible. Ulm coach Ty Harrelson called Tuesday's win important for confidence. Ulm's bench is the main variable after a midweek game.

The edge

The pick is Ulm at home, on Oldenburg's two absences and the Eurocup win's lift. It goes wrong if Ulm's four-game league losing run is not over and fatigue from Tuesday shows in the second half.

Team news

• Tischler and Gilbreath out: Nicholas Tischler (finger fracture) and Ja'Qualyn Gilbreath (foot) will miss the game; Le'Tre Darthard and Nate Johnson could return.
• Four straight league defeats: Ulm are 14th at 2-4 after four league losses in a row but beat Lietkabelis 86-68 in the Eurocup on Tuesday.