Löwen Braunschweig vs Fitness First Würzburg Baskets

Prediction

• Löwen Braunschweig: 40%
• Fitness First Würzburg Baskets: 60%

Pick: Fitness First Würzburg Baskets (Medium confidence)

Match context

Braunschweig host Würzburg with both level on six points after five games, according to the table cited. Würzburg arrive having won their last four games across competitions, including a European one on Wednesday. Braunschweig are coming off three straight defeats.

Recent form

Braunschweig lost 73-88 at Hagen on 25 October, 75-102 to Chemnitz in the cup on 18 October and 98-107 in overtime to Ludwigsburg on 11 October. Würzburg beat Warszawa 91-62 on 28 October and Chemnitz 98-88 on 26 October, and have won four in a row across competitions. The contrast in recent results is clear.

How they attack and defend

Braunschweig scored 83.9 and conceded 92.1 per game last season, the weakest defence in the Bundesliga sides here. Würzburg scored 80.6 and conceded 80.0. Würzburg's defence is the main difference.

Quarter patterns

Braunschweig were outscored by 3.2 points in fourth quarters last season, the worst closing figure in the German games here. Würzburg were level in fourths. That points to a close game turning late.

Head to head

Two recorded recent meetings had a typical margin of 5 points. Published scores for earlier meetings were inconsistent, so treat this as a light factor.

Key players and availability

Devin Askew (foot) is doubtful after a setback in the warm-up in Hagen, and Eddy Edigin Jr., Benny Schröder and Romario Holloway are out. No Würzburg injuries were reported. The guard rotation is where Braunschweig are thinnest.

The edge

The pick is Würzburg, on current form and a healthier squad. It goes wrong if Würzburg's European schedule catches up with them and Braunschweig's home crowd drives a response to three defeats.

Team news

• Askew doubtful, three others out: Devin Askew (foot) is doubtful; Eddy Edigin Jr. (thigh), Benny Schröder (ankle) and Romario Holloway (knee) are out.
• Three straight defeats: Braunschweig lost 73-88 at Hagen on 25 October, 75-102 to Chemnitz in the cup and 98-107 in overtime to Ludwigsburg.