ALBA Berlin vs Phoenix Hagen

Prediction

• ALBA Berlin: 80%
• Phoenix Hagen: 20%

Pick: ALBA Berlin (High confidence)

Match context

ALBA are 12th at 3-4 and Hagen, back in the top flight after promotion from ProA, are 15th at 2-5. It is a mid-table game for ALBA who have been inconsistent, against a visitor still looking for a foothold. Hagen's coach is Chris Harris, ALBA's is Pedro Calles.

Recent form

ALBA lost 88-95 at Bonn on 1 November after leading by as many as ten in the third quarter, and before that lost three league games in a row, including 75-95 at Trier on 10 October when they were short of players. In between they have beaten Bamberg 83-71 in the cup and won Basketball Champions League games at Slavia Prague and Igokea, and sit 3-0 in their group. Hagen have lost five of seven: 92-102 at Rostock, 78-93 to Ulm, 93-94 at Chemnitz, 88-93 to Frankfurt and 74-100 to Vechta. Three of those defeats were by five points or fewer or went to the last possession range, so they are not far from winning.

How they attack and defend

ALBA have scored 588 and conceded 630 over seven league games, about 84.0 and 90.0 per game. Hagen have scored 600 and conceded 633, about 85.7 and 90.4. On paper the two are close, which is why the 80% figure leans heavily on home court and on Hagen's heavy loss to Vechta. Hagen scored 88 in each of their two wins and conceded 73 or 78, so they need a low-scoring game to win.

Quarter patterns

Hagen's starts have been the problem in two of their heaviest defeats: Rostock led 39-11 after one quarter on 19 September, and Vechta were 56-38 up at the break last Friday, having won the second quarter 31-13. ALBA's own pattern is late fading: at Bonn they led 45-42 at half-time and lost the fourth quarter 29-23.

Head to head

I could not find a recent league meeting, as Hagen only came up from ProA this summer. The clubs have already been drawn together in the cup, with that quarter-final due at Hagen on 12 or 13 December.

Key players and availability

Justin Bean scored 20 and Malte Delow 18 in the cup win over Bamberg, and Jordan Ford was ALBA's top scorer in the defeat at Bonn per Tagesspiegel's report and scored 15 at Trier. Brandon Angel had 14 at Trier and 21 in the Champions League at Slavia Prague. Yankuba Sima is the new centre signed after Agbakoko's injury. I could not confirm any individual Hagen numbers or any Hagen absences.

The edge

ALBA are the pick. They are at home, their rotation is more experienced and Hagen have just conceded 100. The risk is ALBA's habit of giving up leads, since a Hagen side that has stayed within a point or five in several defeats could hang around if ALBA turn the ball over as they did against Bamberg. With Hermannsson and Agbakoko out and a Champions League game this week, ALBA are not at full strength, and 80% looks a little rich for a team 3-4 in the league.

Team news

• Hermannsson and Agbakoko out long-term, Kayil had a calf problem: A report on ALBA's cup win over Bamberg on 19 October said Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko are out for a long period, and that youngster Jack Kayil had been added to the list with a calf injury. Yankuba Sima, signed from Valencia, made his debut that night. I could not find a newer injury list, so Kayil's current status is unconfirmed.
• Hagen beaten 100-74 at home by Vechta last Friday: The newly promoted side trailed 38-56 at half-time against Rasta Vechta and are 2-5, 15th in the table. Both wins came before that: 87-78 at Oldenburg on 10 October and 88-73 at home to Braunschweig on 25 October.
• Cup quarter-final between the same clubs set for 12 or 13 December: The draw made after ALBA's win over Bamberg sent the cup quarter-final to Hagen. That makes tonight the first of two meetings in five weeks.