New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks

Prediction

• New Orleans Pelicans: 33%
• Atlanta Hawks: 67%

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (Medium confidence)

Match context

Atlanta travel to New Orleans for a Saturday evening game. Reports have both clubs last playing on 29 October, so neither is on a back-to-back. New Orleans are reported to have taken their first win of the season on that date, which lifts the mood slightly after a poor start.

Recent form

Last season Atlanta finished 46-36 and New Orleans 26-56, a 20-win gap. Atlanta's last five games of that run were 2-3 and New Orleans' 3-2, but the full-season gap is the better guide. Early-season reports point to a slow start for New Orleans.

How they attack and defend

Atlanta scored 118.5 and conceded 116.0 per game last season, while New Orleans scored 115.5 and conceded 120.0. Atlanta's effective shooting (55.4%) beat New Orleans' (52.8%), and their defence also allowed a lower mark. That is a clear two-way edge for the visitors.

Quarter patterns

Atlanta were slightly positive in the fourth quarter last season (+1.5), while New Orleans were -2.3, their weakest period. Close games have therefore tended to tilt towards Atlanta late. New Orleans also trailed in first quarters (-2.5 on average).

Head to head

Atlanta won two of the four recent meetings in the data, New Orleans none, with games averaging about 215 points and a 17-point typical margin. The results lean one way, though the rosters differ from those games.

Key players and availability

Jordan Poole and Yves Missi are listed out for New Orleans, taking away a primary ball handler and the rim protection. Atlanta's listed absences are Veesaar, out for the season, and Gueye, both depth players. The imbalance in who is missing favours the visitors.

The edge

The pick is Atlanta, on a stronger two-way record and a healthier core rotation. The one way it goes wrong is a quick, three-point-heavy home night from a New Orleans side coming off its first win, which could erase the visitors' depth advantage.

Team news

• Poole and Missi out: Jordan Poole (ankle) and Yves Missi (knee) are listed out.
• Veesaar and Gueye unavailable: Hawks list Veesaar (out for season, ACL) and Gueye (foot) as out.