San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction

• San Antonio Spurs: 77%
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 23%

Pick: San Antonio Spurs (High confidence)

Match context

Minnesota visit San Antonio on the second night of a back-to-back, according to a preview, while San Antonio last played on 28 October. That is a rest advantage for the home side. With Anthony Edwards listed out, the visitors also arrive short of their main creator.

Recent form

San Antonio finished last season 62-21 and Minnesota 49-33. San Antonio's reported results this year include a 117-111 overtime win over Utah on 28 October and an earlier 116-104 loss to Oklahoma City. Minnesota reportedly beat Miami 131-106 on 21 October.

How they attack and defend

Last season San Antonio scored 119.7 and conceded 111.5, with a 55.9% effective shooting mark on offence and 52.4% allowed on defence. Minnesota scored 118.0 and conceded 114.6, with 56.0% on offence. The offences were comparable, so the gap is in defence, where San Antonio were the stronger side.

Quarter patterns

San Antonio won first quarters by 4.4 points on average last season, the strongest opening of any team in this slate. Minnesota were close to level in the first (+0.3) and slightly positive in the fourth (+0.6). If the pattern holds, San Antonio can build a lead the tired visitors must chase.

Head to head

Minnesota won two of the six recorded meetings in the data and San Antonio one, at a typical margin of 5.7 points and about 231 combined points. Those games were close, which is a reminder that the home pick is not a lock.

Key players and availability

Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) are listed out for Minnesota. That removes the scoring and a rotation guard in the same game. No San Antonio absences were named in the reports checked.

The edge

The pick is San Antonio, on rest, home court and Minnesota's two listed absences. It goes wrong if Minnesota's depth scorers have a hot shooting night and the Spurs' reported overtime game two nights earlier leaves them flat.

Team news

• Edwards and DiVincenzo out: Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) are listed out.
• Back-to-back: A preview reports Minnesota also played on Friday 30 October.