Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction

• Milwaukee Bucks: 28%
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 72%

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (Medium confidence)

Match context

Cleveland travel to Milwaukee for a Saturday night game. A preview reports Cleveland lost 114-111 at Atlanta on 29 October after leading, which may sharpen their focus. Milwaukee were reported beaten 132-100 by Houston on 28 October.

Recent form

Cleveland finished last season 52-30 and Milwaukee 32-50. Cleveland's last five games of last season went 3-2 and Milwaukee's 2-3. The early-season picture points the same way, with Milwaukee's reported heavy losses.

How they attack and defend

Cleveland scored 119.5 and conceded 115.4 per game last season, against Milwaukee's 110.6 and 116.8. Milwaukee's effective shooting on offence (56.6%) was the highest in the pairing's sample, but their defence allowed 55.9%. Cleveland's balance between the two ends is the difference.

Quarter patterns

Cleveland won first quarters by 2.2 points last season, while Milwaukee lost them by 3.2. Milwaukee were also negative in fourths (-1.3). The pattern favours Cleveland building an early lead.

Head to head

Cleveland won three of eight recent meetings in the data, Milwaukee one, at a typical margin of 6.5 points and 232 combined points. The sample is old, and the sides have changed.

Key players and availability

Cleveland are without Jaylon Tyson (ankle) and Tomlin (back), with Meleek Thomas (foot) day to day. These are depth absences rather than the core of the rotation. Milwaukee list nobody, so the Bucks should be at full strength.

The edge

The pick is Cleveland, on a stronger record last season and a stable core. It goes wrong if Milwaukee are fully healthy and shoot well at home, since Cleveland's perimeter depth is thinner without Tyson.

Team news

• Tyson and Tomlin out, Thomas day to day: Jaylon Tyson (ankle) and Tomlin (back) are out; Meleek Thomas (foot) is day to day.
• No Bucks injuries listed: The injury list checked shows no Milwaukee injuries.