Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings

Prediction

• Memphis Grizzlies: 73%
• Sacramento Kings: 27%

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies (Medium confidence)

Match context

Sacramento visit Memphis on Saturday evening, with the home side reported unbeaten and the visitors reported winless. Both clubs last played on 29 October, so rest is even. The home side are chasing a sixth straight win in a fixture that looks lopsided on paper.

Recent form

Memphis are reported 5-0, including a 124-103 win over Portland on 29 October. Sacramento's reported 132-120 loss at New Orleans that same night leaves them looking for a first win. Last season's records, 24-56 for Memphis and 22-60 for Sacramento, were similar, so the current gap reflects a fast start rather than a long history.

How they attack and defend

Last season Memphis scored 114.6 and conceded 120.9, and Sacramento scored 111.0 and conceded 121.0. Both defences were poor and Sacramento's offence was the lower of the two. Giving up 132 points to New Orleans fits the pattern.

Quarter patterns

Memphis were outscored by 4.1 points in the fourth quarter last season, their weakest period, so late leads have been fragile. Sacramento were level in fourths (+0.1) but lost first quarters by 2.6, as did Memphis. A close finish is possible even if the home side lead early.

Head to head

Memphis won three of eight recent meetings in the data against one for Sacramento, with a 15.5-point typical margin and about 236 combined points. A reported 123-112 Memphis win earlier this season is consistent with that.

Key players and availability

Memphis list Jerome and Pippen Jr. (back) and Post (ankle) as day to day, so guard depth is the one thing to watch. No Sacramento injuries were named. The visitors' record means any rotation change is more likely to be tactical than medical.

The edge

The pick is Memphis, on a perfect start, home court and a winless opponent. It goes wrong if the Grizzlies' fourth-quarter weakness from last season resurfaces and Sacramento stay within a possession late.

Team news

• Three Grizzlies day to day: Jerome (back), Pippen Jr. (back) and Post (ankle) are all day to day.
• Kings reported winless: A preview describes Sacramento as winless after losing 132-120 at New Orleans on 29 October.