Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction

• Houston Rockets: 46%
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 54%

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (Low confidence)

Match context

Oklahoma City visit Houston for a Saturday night Western Conference game in which both teams are short of key players. A preview reports Houston played on Friday, a back-to-back, while Oklahoma City last played on 28 October. The rest edge goes to the visitors.

Recent form

Oklahoma City finished last season 64-17 and Houston 52-30. Houston's reported results this year include a 132-100 win over Milwaukee on 28 October and a 116-111 loss to Dallas on 30 October, their first defeat. Oklahoma City reportedly lost 120-96 to Dallas on 28 October.

How they attack and defend

Oklahoma City scored 119.1 and conceded 107.8 per game last season, the best defensive return among the NBA teams in this slate. Houston scored 115.2 and conceded 110.0. The gap in effective shooting differential (56.4% vs 52.0% for Oklahoma City, 54.5% vs 53.3% for Houston) favoured the visitors.

Quarter patterns

Oklahoma City won first quarters by 4.1 points and fourth quarters by 2.0 last season, the strongest closing profile in the pairing. Houston lost fourths by 1.5 and firsts by 0.8. The profile favours the visitors if they are close late.

Head to head

Oklahoma City won two of six recent meetings in the data and Houston one, at a typical margin of 9 points and about 223 combined points.

Key players and availability

Oklahoma City list Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace as out, with Alex Caruso, Topic and Sorber day to day. Houston list Steven Adams out and Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard day to day. Sengun's availability is the single biggest variable on the home side.

The edge

The pick is Oklahoma City, narrowly, on rest and the stronger underlying record, but with three starters out confidence is low. It goes wrong if Sengun plays and Houston's home crowd and size overwhelm a depleted Oklahoma City frontcourt.

Team news

• Williams, Holmgren and Wallace out: Jalen Williams (ankle), Chet Holmgren (knee) and Cason Wallace (shoulder) are listed out; Alex Caruso, Topic and Sorber are day to day.
• Sengun day to day, Adams out: Alperen Sengun (back) and Reed Sheppard (back) are day to day; Steven Adams (calf) is out. A preview reports Houston on a back-to-back.