Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction

• Detroit Pistons: 68%
• Philadelphia 76ers: 32%

Pick: Detroit Pistons (Medium confidence)

Match context

Detroit (6-1) host Philadelphia (7-1) in a meeting of two of the best records in the league, with both sides having played on Monday 2 November and had a day off since. Philadelphia won at Charlotte and beat Chicago in their last two, while Detroit routed Charlotte 124-91 on the road. This is a repeat of the 25 October game in Philadelphia, which Detroit won 106-93.

Recent form

Detroit have won four of their last five, the only defeat being 111-97 at the Knicks on 27 October, and their 33-point win at Charlotte on Monday was their most comfortable of the season. Philadelphia have won four in a row, but all by small margins until Monday's 126-107 win over Chicago: 114-109 at Indiana, 98-93 against the Knicks and 109-104 at Charlotte. Their only loss is the one to Detroit.

How they attack and defend

Detroit's strength is at the back: they concede 100.3 points a game, the lowest of any side in tonight's four games, while scoring 111.9. Philadelphia score 110.9 and concede 105.1, so Detroit's defence is nearly five points a night tighter. Detroit's average is 113.0 points away from home and 109.0 at home, so this is not a team that needs a crowd to score.

Quarter patterns

Detroit are ahead in three of four quarters on average: +4.9 in the first, +5.2 in the third and +3.4 in the fourth, and behind only in the second (-1.8). Philadelphia start slowly (-2.1 in the first) and finish strongly, outscoring opponents by 5.7 in the fourth, the best closing quarter of any team in this card. Detroit's early lead against Philadelphia's late surge is the question the game is likely to turn on.

Head to head

They have met once this season. Detroit won 106-93 in Philadelphia on 25 October, with Cade Cunningham scoring 26 with 8 rebounds and 8 assists, Duncan Robinson 21 and Daniss Jenkins 18. Tyrese Maxey had 29 for the 76ers, who were without Joel Embiid that night.

Key players and availability

Cade Cunningham leads Detroit at 23.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists a game, ahead of Duncan Robinson (17.9) and Paul Reed (13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds). Tyrese Maxey averages 29.1 points a game for Philadelphia, followed by Jaylen Brown (20.6), Embiid (18.5 points and 9.2 rebounds in six games) and LeBron James (16.2 points, 7.3 assists). Maxey's 29.1 is the highest scoring average of any player in tonight's four games.

The edge

Detroit are the pick. Their defence has been the best in these four games and they have already beaten Philadelphia once this season, away from home, while coping without Duren since 23 October. Reed starting at centre will be tested by Embiid, but Detroit's perimeter pair of Cunningham and Robinson scored 47 between them in the first meeting. It goes wrong if Embiid plays a full night and Philadelphia's fourth-quarter edge turns a tight game, which is the pattern behind their last four wins. Duren and Joe both being out also leaves Detroit with few bodies to absorb foul trouble. Availability for tonight is based on ESPN's entries from 3 November and RotoWire's 4 November lineup page and is not yet confirmed by the teams.

Team news

• Duren still out with hamstring strain: ESPN lists centre Jalen Duren as out with a right hamstring strain, with an estimated return of 9 November. He played 10 minutes against Miami on 23 October and has not featured since; Detroit are 4-1 in the five games without him.
• Isaiah Joe ruled out: ESPN's 3 November entry rules guard Isaiah Joe out of Wednesday's game with a hip issue.
• Barlow out with back issue: ESPN's 3 November entry says Dominick Barlow will miss the Detroit game with a back issue.
• Embiid expected to start: RotoWire's 4 November lineup page has Joel Embiid in Philadelphia's expected starting five alongside Maxey, Edgecombe, Brown and LeBron James. Embiid did not play in the 25 October meeting with Detroit or in the 31 October win at Charlotte, so his minutes are worth watching. Not yet officially confirmed.