Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks

Prediction

• Washington Wizards: 30%
• Atlanta Hawks: 70%

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (Medium confidence)

Match context

Washington (4-3) host Atlanta (4-4) with both sides having played on Monday 2 November and had a day off since, so there is no travel or rest gap to separate them. Washington won at Orlando 103-94 on Monday, Atlanta won 108-104 at Indiana. Neither team has met the other yet this season.

Recent form

Washington have won two in a row, 95-79 against Charlotte and 103-94 at Orlando, after defeats at Charlotte and Cleveland. Atlanta have won two of their last five, 114-111 over Cleveland on 29 October and 108-104 at Indiana on Monday. The defeats were 120-110 at Houston, 129-117 against Miami and 121-99 at New Orleans. They are 3-2 on the road this season and 1-2 at home.

How they attack and defend

Atlanta are the higher scorers at 115.3 points a game, against Washington's 109.4, but they also concede 114.0, and they have allowed 120 or more three times in their last five. Washington concede 107.4 and have scored 110 or more only three times in seven games. Last season Washington's defence allowed a 56.5 effective field-goal rate, the weakest in tonight's card, while Atlanta's offence managed 55.4.

Quarter patterns

Washington's best quarter is the third, where they outscore opponents by 5.6 points on average (28.3 to 22.7), but they lose the fourth by 1.8 and the first by 1.3. Atlanta are strongest in the second (+4.5) and weakest in the first (-2.8) and third (-1.4). That points to Washington leading at some stage after the break and having to hold it, with Atlanta's second quarter the way back.

Head to head

No meeting between these sides this season.

Key players and availability

Atlanta's scoring is spread: Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads at 21.1 points a game, with Jalen Johnson at 18.3 (plus 9.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists), CJ McCollum 14.2 and Aaron Wiggins 13.8. For Washington, Anthony Davis averages 23.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, Trae Young 19.9 points and 10.0 assists, AJ Dybantsa 19.0 in three games and Kyshawn George 16.1.

The edge

Atlanta are the pick, though not by a wide margin. Alexander-Walker, McCollum and Wiggins give them three scorers who do not depend on Johnson, and Washington have been giving up shots all year, which suits a team averaging 115 points. The danger is on both ends of the injury list. If Johnson sits, Atlanta lose their second-leading scorer and top rebounder and passer, and Young and Davis can carry a home side that has won its last two. Atlanta's own defence has shipped 121 and 129 in recent games and Washington's third-quarter run could make that a problem. Availability is as of ESPN's 3 November entries and RotoWire's 4 November lineup page; Johnson, Sarr and Gill are all unconfirmed.

Team news

• Jalen Johnson questionable with ankle issue: ESPN's 3 November entry lists forward Jalen Johnson as questionable for the trip to Washington with an ankle issue. He averages 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists and has no minutes in the box score of Atlanta's win at Indiana on Monday, so Atlanta have recent experience of playing without him. Not confirmed for tonight.
• Landale ruled out: ESPN's 3 November entry rules centre Jock Landale out with a left hip strain, with an estimated return of 6 November.
• Sarr questionable with knee issue: ESPN's 3 November entry lists centre Alex Sarr (9.3 points, 5.5 rebounds) as questionable with a knee issue. RotoWire's 4 November page still has him in the expected starting five. Not confirmed.
• Gill questionable, Vukcevic and Beekman out: Forward Anthony Gill is questionable with a back issue, while Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Reece Beekman (right AC joint) are out, per ESPN's entries from 1-3 November.