Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction

• Boston Celtics: 86%
• Milwaukee Bucks: 14%

Pick: Boston Celtics (High confidence)

Match context

Boston (5-2) host Milwaukee (1-6) after a day off, with the Celtics having lost 109-93 at Houston on Monday night and the Bucks 112-100 at Minnesota the same evening. Boston have won all four home games so far; Milwaukee have lost all three on the road.

Recent form

Boston won four straight before Monday's defeat in Houston: 134-99 and 125-111 against Chicago, 125-124 against Brooklyn and 108-97 at Orlando. Milwaukee have lost six of seven, their one win being 110-102 against Indiana on 26 October, and they have been beaten by an average of 23 points in their last three games.

How they attack and defend

Boston score 122.8 points a game at home, against 104.7 away, and that gap explains the 4-0 and 1-2 splits. Milwaukee concede 124.1 a game, the most in this card apart from Chicago, and have scored 111.1. The Bucks have conceded 130 or more in two of their last three games.

Quarter patterns

Boston start well, winning the first quarter by 3.9 and the second and third by 3.0 each, but they are outscored by 4.1 in the fourth (26.6 to 30.7), which is the weakest closing quarter of any team in this card. Milwaukee's problem is the second quarter, where they are outscored by 7.4 on average (25.9 to 33.3), and they are also behind in the third (-1.6) and fourth (-3.1).

Head to head

No meeting between these sides this season.

Key players and availability

Jayson Tatum leads Boston with 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists a game, with Paul George on 20.7 (six games), Payton Pritchard 13.4 and Derrick White 11.1. For Milwaukee, Tyler Herro averages 21.9 points, Jaime Jaquez Jr 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kel'el Ware 11.4 points and 8.7 rebounds, and Ryan Rollins 11.0.

The edge

Boston are the pick. A home side that scores 122.8 a game against a team conceding 124.1 should win comfortably, and Milwaukee have not been within 10 points of anyone in their last three games. Boston's lead is likely to be built before half-time given their early-quarter record. The route to an upset is Tatum resting and Pritchard missing, which would leave Boston thin on creators, with a poor fourth quarter giving the Bucks room to close a gap; Boston also showed in Houston on Monday that they can have a flat night. The confidence is one tier lower than the gap in form suggests because Tatum's status is unconfirmed. Availability is as of ESPN's 3 November entries and RotoWire's 4 November lineup page.

Team news

• Tatum questionable, listed as rest: ESPN's 3 November entry lists Jayson Tatum as questionable for the Milwaukee game, with the reason given as rest. RotoWire's 4 November lineup page still shows him in the expected starting five. He averages 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists and has played all seven Boston games. Not confirmed for tonight.
• Pritchard questionable with shoulder contusion: ESPN's 3 November entry lists Payton Pritchard (13.4 points a game) as questionable with a right shoulder contusion.
• Carter out with mononucleosis: ESPN's entry from 18 October has Devin Carter out with mononucleosis, with an estimated return of 8 November.
• Bucks on a three-game losing run: Milwaukee have lost three in a row by 12, 25 and 32 points - 100-112 at Minnesota on Monday, 111-136 against Cleveland and 100-132 against Houston - and ESPN's injury page showed no entries for them.