New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls

Prediction

• New York Knicks: 87%
• Chicago Bulls: 13%

Pick: New York Knicks (High confidence)

Match context

New York (3-4) host Chicago (1-6) after both played on Monday 2 November; the Knicks beat Brooklyn 103-90 and the Bulls lost 126-107 at Philadelphia. The teams met a week ago in Chicago, where the Knicks won 133-127.

Recent form

Chicago have lost five in a row since a win at Milwaukee on 23 October, including 99-134 and 111-125 at Boston and 107-126 at Philadelphia. New York have won two of their last three, 133-127 at Chicago and 103-90 against Brooklyn, with a 98-93 loss at Philadelphia between them. They have lost at home to Philadelphia and Orlando this season, so this is not a comfortable run.

How they attack and defend

The Bulls concede 128.9 points a game, the most of any side in this card, while scoring 112.6, and 123.5 of that average comes at home, where they have lost both games. New York score only 106.4 and concede 105.1, so the Knicks' strength is that they do not need to score much to be ahead of a Chicago side that gives up 129.

Quarter patterns

Chicago's problem is the start: they are outscored by 10.8 points in the first quarter on average (24.1 to 34.9) and by 6.8 in the third. They win the second quarter by 2.0. New York are close to level in the first three quarters (-0.6, +0.6, -1.0) and gain 2.3 a game in the fourth, which fits a team that is fine but not strong.

Head to head

They have met once this season. New York won 133-127 at Chicago on 28 October, with Jalen Brunson scoring 38 with 7 assists, OG Anunoby 23 and Karl-Anthony Towns 19 points with 13 rebounds. Norman Powell had 30 for Chicago, Caleb Wilson 20 and Matas Buzelis 17.

Key players and availability

Jalen Brunson averages 24.6 points and 5.3 assists for New York, with Karl-Anthony Towns on 20.3 points and 13.9 rebounds and OG Anunoby on 16.4. Chicago's Caleb Wilson averages 21.6 points and 6.7 rebounds, Norman Powell 20.3, Matas Buzelis 13.0 and Jalen Smith 12.1 points with 8.6 rebounds. Josh Giddey averages 9.1 points with 7.9 assists.

The edge

New York are the pick. Chicago have lost five straight and trail by almost 11 points after the first quarter on average, and Brunson scored 38 against them last week. A Knicks side that has lost twice at home this season should be comfortable against one that has allowed 125 or more in four of its last five. The way it goes wrong is a shootout: Chicago scored 127 and 132 in two of their games, Powell and Wilson can score, and if Claxton makes his debut he gives the Bulls a rim protector they have not had. Hart being questionable would also remove a rebounder from a Knicks team that scores only 106. Availability is as of ESPN's 3 November entries and RotoWire's 4 November lineup page; Hart and Claxton are unconfirmed.

Team news

• Hart questionable with ankle soreness: ESPN's 3 November entry lists Josh Hart (8.6 points, 7.3 rebounds a game) as questionable for the Chicago game with right ankle soreness. RotoWire's 4 November lineup page still has him as an expected starter. Not confirmed.
• Claxton questionable with hamstring issue: ESPN's 3 November note says centre Nic Claxton is questionable for the Knicks game with a hamstring issue, although its status field reads out. He has no minutes in any of Chicago's seven box scores this season, so tonight would be his first game. RotoWire lists him questionable and expected to start.
• Jalen Smith likely to play: ESPN's 3 November entry lists Jalen Smith (12.1 points, 8.6 rebounds) as likely to play despite a left finger sprain.
• Bulls on a five-game losing run: Chicago have lost five in a row, conceding at least 124 in each, and 107-126 at Philadelphia on Monday was their latest.