Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets

Prediction

• Brooklyn Nets: 32%
• Charlotte Hornets: 68%

Pick: Charlotte Hornets (Medium confidence)

Match context

Brooklyn host Charlotte on Wednesday evening (7.30pm ET tip) in a meeting of two sides who need a result. The Nets are 1-6, with their only win a 98-90 success at Indiana on 1 November; they lost 103-90 at the Knicks on Monday. The Hornets are 3-5 and have lost four in a row, the latest a 124-91 home defeat by Detroit on Monday. Both last played on 2 November, so neither is on a back-to-back. Injury information is from ESPN's list and Rotowire's projected lineups as of 3-4 November; final confirmation comes closer to tip-off.

Recent form

Brooklyn have lost six of seven. They are 0-3 at home, beaten 110-103 by Charlotte on opening night, 136-109 by Indiana and 110-94 by Detroit, and 1-3 on the road. The near-miss was a 125-124 loss at Boston on 27 October. Charlotte started well, beating Brooklyn, Miami (115-110) and Washington (110-103), then went 89-97 at Detroit, 79-95 at Washington, 104-109 home to Philadelphia and 91-124 home to Detroit. They are 2-3 at home and 1-2 away.

How they attack and defend

Neither side scores much. Brooklyn average 105.6 points and concede 114.1, having let in 110 or more in five of seven games. Charlotte average 97.4 and concede 108.6, and have been held below 100 in four of eight. On raw margin Charlotte (minus 11.2 a game) are actually a little worse than Brooklyn (minus 8.5), so this is not a mismatch on paper.

Quarter patterns

Brooklyn's problems come in the middle of games: they are outscored 30.1-25.1 in the second quarter and 29.9-26.3 in the third, while the first and fourth are level. Charlotte fade late. They concede 27.3 and score only 21.0 in the fourth quarter, a gap of 6.3 points, and are also behind in the third by 3.4. A game that is close going into the last quarter has not suited the Hornets so far.

Head to head

They have met once this season, on 21 October in Brooklyn, and Charlotte won 110-103. Julius Randle had 33 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists and Michael Porter Jr added 26 for the Nets, but Grayson Allen (21), Naz Reid (20 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists) and Dennis Schröder (19) carried Charlotte.

Key players and availability

Brooklyn's scoring comes from two men: Julius Randle averages 20.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists and Michael Porter Jr 20.7 and 7.0. Nolan Traore (11.4 points, 2.9 assists) and Moritz Wagner (11.0) are next. For Charlotte, Brandon Miller leads with 23.5 points and 5.4 rebounds, followed by Naz Reid (15.5 points, 8.2 rebounds), Grayson Allen (14.9) and Dennis Schröder (10.9 points, 4.9 assists). Moussa Diabate grabs 9.5 rebounds a game. Kon Knueppel and Coby White are expected to return but are not confirmed.

The edge

Charlotte Hornets, as a lean rather than a strong view. They have the better record, they won the first meeting in Brooklyn, and the Nets are 0-3 at home with losses by 7, 27 and 16. Brandon Miller is the leading scorer on the floor, and if Knueppel and White do play, Charlotte add two guards who have barely featured this season. It goes wrong if Charlotte's recent scoring slump continues, since 89, 79 and 91 points in three of their last four will struggle to win at any venue, or if Randle and Porter Jr both have big nights again, as they did in October when they combined for 59.

Team news

• Knueppel and White expected back: ESPN's injury list (3 Nov) has Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Coby White (calf) as likely to play in Brooklyn, and Rotowire's projected lineup for 4 Nov starts both. Neither is confirmed. Knueppel has not appeared in a game yet this season and White has played one.
• Grant Williams out: Grant Williams (hamstring) is listed out for Wednesday.
• Demin out, Traore projected to start: Egor Demin is listed out. The projected Brooklyn five is Nolan Traore, Chaney Johnson, Michael Porter Jr, Julius Randle and Day'Ron Sharpe; the lineup is not official.
• Four straight defeats: Charlotte have lost four in a row, most recently 124-91 at home to Detroit on 2 November, and have scored under 100 in four of their eight games.