Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 70%
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 30%

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (Medium confidence)

Match context

Oklahoma City host Cleveland on Wednesday (8pm ET), two days after winning in Cleveland, 117-112 on Monday 2 November. The Thunder are 5-2 and unbeaten at home (3-0). The Cavaliers are 4-3 and 3-1 at home but 1-2 away. Both teams are well short of full strength. Injury reports are from ESPN (3 November) and Rotowire's projected lineups (4 November); nothing is officially confirmed yet.

Recent form

Oklahoma City won their first four, including 96-84 against Denver and 125-114 against Phoenix, then lost 120-96 at Dallas and 119-98 at Houston before beating the Cavaliers on Monday. Cleveland beat Brooklyn 125-121, Minnesota 127-125 and Washington 121-111, but lost 114-106 at Philadelphia, 114-111 at Atlanta and 136-111 at Milwaukee before Monday's defeat.

How they attack and defend

Cleveland score freely, 119.7 a game, but concede 116.1. Oklahoma City score 108.0 and concede 107.7, so they play to a lower total and rely on defence and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Cleveland's heaviest defeat was the 136-111 loss at Milwaukee on 30 October.

Quarter patterns

Oklahoma City are strongest in the second quarter, outscoring teams 27.4-23.7, and slightly negative in the other three, including the fourth (24.4-25.6). Cleveland start fast, +3.1 in the first quarter, and are +1.8 in the third, but lose the fourth by 3.0 on average (26.4-29.4). With both sides depleted, the closing minutes are where Cleveland have been vulnerable.

Head to head

They met on Monday 2 November in Cleveland and Oklahoma City won 117-112. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 43 points with 8 assists and Ajay Mitchell added 20; for Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell had 17 points and 11 assists, with Meleek Thomas (17) and Evan Mobley (16) also scoring.

Key players and availability

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 28.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists, with Ajay Mitchell next at 17.0 and Jared McCain at 10.3. Holmgren (12.0 points, 9.3 rebounds in three games) and Jalen Williams (13.7 in three games) have gone from the rotation. Cleveland rely on Donovan Mitchell (21.9 points, 5.4 assists), Evan Mobley (19.1 points, 8.0 rebounds), James Harden (16.3 points, 6.3 assists) and Jarrett Allen (15.1 points, 8.7 rebounds), plus Meleek Thomas at 14.0 in four games.

The edge

Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing at home, where they are 3-0, and having beaten Cleveland two days earlier with 43 points from Gilgeous-Alexander, they start in front. Cleveland lose Tyson and Watson, two of their rotation guards and wings, and rely heavily on Mitchell, Mobley, Harden and Allen for scoring. The caution is that the Thunder are thin themselves: with Holmgren and Jalen Williams in the line-up they won their first three, and since then they are 2-2, including two hefty road defeats. It goes wrong if Gilgeous-Alexander is shut off by a double-team and nobody else scores, or if Donovan Mitchell, who had 17 points and 11 assists on Monday, and Harden get the better of a thin Oklahoma City rotation late on.

Team news

• Holmgren and Jalen Williams still out: Chet Holmgren (patellar tendon, estimated return early January) and Jalen Williams (leg surgery on 28 October, return estimated March) are out, as are Cason Wallace (shoulder surgery), Nikola Topic (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee). Jaylin Williams (back) is questionable. Per ESPN (3 Nov) and Rotowire (4 Nov).
• Tyson and Watson out: Jaylon Tyson (right ankle sprain) and Peyton Watson (hamstring) are both out in Oklahoma City, per ESPN's 3 Nov report. Watson averages 10.8 points this season.
• Rematch of Monday's game: The sides played in Cleveland on 2 November and Oklahoma City won 117-112. Neither team is on a back-to-back tonight.