Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers

Prediction

• Memphis Grizzlies: 68%
• Indiana Pacers: 32%

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies (High confidence)

Match context

Memphis host Indiana on Wednesday (8pm ET) with the Grizzlies 6-1 and the Pacers 2-6. Memphis last played on Monday 2 November, losing 135-134 at home to New Orleans, and Indiana lost 108-104 to Atlanta the same night. Neither side is on a back-to-back. Injury information is from ESPN (3 November) and Rotowire (4 November) and is not final.

Recent form

Memphis won their first six, including 123-103 against Utah, 111-108 at Golden State, 124-103 at Portland and 136-105 against Sacramento, before the one-point loss to New Orleans, in which Ty Jerome scored 40. They are 4-0 away and 2-1 at home. Indiana's two wins were 123-120 at New Orleans and 136-109 over Brooklyn; they have lost the other six, including 145-125 at Miami and 98-90 at home to Brooklyn on 1 November. They are 0-4 at home.

How they attack and defend

Memphis average 123.0 points and concede 110.1, and have scored 120 or more in five of seven. Indiana score 111.8 and concede 115.6. The Pacers have conceded 110 or more in six of eight, and Memphis score more freely than most of those opponents.

Quarter patterns

Memphis win the second quarter by 5.6 points (33.6-28.0), the third by 2.6 and, notably, the fourth by 4.0 (they concede only 23.1). Indiana start badly: they are outscored 31.3-29.1 in the first and 30.0-25.1 in the second, which is a deficit of 7.1 points at half-time on average. Their only winning quarter is the third (+4.0).

Head to head

Memphis and Indiana have not met this season.

Key players and availability

Ty Jerome leads Memphis with 28.2 points and 5.5 assists in six games, followed by Cameron Boozer (17.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists), Isaiah Stewart (12.8), Jaylen Wells (12.7) and Cedric Coward (12.5 points, 8.8 rebounds). Indiana's main contributors are Pascal Siakam (21.4 points, 7.4 rebounds), Andrew Nembhard (18.5 points, 7.3 assists) and Obi Toppin (15.2, if he plays). Haliburton averaged 21.8 points and 9.5 assists in his four games but is out.

The edge

Memphis Grizzlies. They have the stronger record, they are better in the second half of games, and Indiana are without Haliburton and have lost five in a row. Jerome and Boozer give them two scorers who can hurt an Indiana rotation short of its point guards. The risk is that Memphis conceded 135 in Monday's one-point loss, and that a rested Siakam and Nembhard are enough to keep Indiana within range if the Pacers' questionable players (Oubre, Zubac, Toppin) all play. Indiana's away record (2-2) is better than their home one.

Team news

• Haliburton out, others doubtful: Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) is out; ESPN reported on 28 October that he would miss at least two weeks. T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard are out too. Kelly Oubre Jr, Ivica Zubac and Obi Toppin are listed questionable on Rotowire's 4 Nov lineup page.
• Pippen out, Post questionable: Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) is out and Quinten Post (ankle) is questionable. Both are bench players; Zach Edey is projected to start at centre.
• Five straight defeats: Indiana have lost five in a row and are 0-4 at home, though they are away tonight. Siakam and Nesmith were rested for Monday's 108-104 defeat to Atlanta, so their return is likely but not confirmed.