New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz

Prediction

• New Orleans Pelicans: 72%
• Utah Jazz: 28%

Pick: New Orleans Pelicans (High confidence)

Match context

New Orleans host Utah on Wednesday (8pm ET). The Pelicans are 3-4 and have won three straight, the latest a 135-134 win at Memphis on Monday 2 November. The Jazz are 1-6 and are coming off a 119-97 defeat at San Antonio on the same night. Neither team is on a back-to-back. Injury details are from ESPN (3 November) and Rotowire's projected lineups (4 November) and may change before tip-off.

Recent form

The Pelicans lost their first four (123-120 to Indiana, 120-119 at Utah, 141-135 at Denver and 104-91 to Denver) before beating Sacramento 132-120, Atlanta 121-99 and Memphis on the road. They are 2-2 at home. Utah's one win was 120-119 over New Orleans; since then they have lost to the Lakers (132-123), Memphis (110-105), San Antonio (117-111), Portland (112-90) and San Antonio again. They are 1-4 at home and 0-2 away.

How they attack and defend

New Orleans score 121.9 and concede 120.1, so their games run high. Utah score 107.0 and concede 118.9, a deficit of almost 12 a game, and have allowed 110 or more in every game. The Pelicans should be able to reach 120 against a Jazz side missing Nurkic and Jackson; the question is whether they defend any better than they have.

Quarter patterns

New Orleans are strongest in the third quarter (33.7-27.7, +6.0) and weakest in the fourth (25.1-31.3, minus 6.2), so they build leads and then let teams back in. Utah have the reverse problem in the middle of games: they are outscored by 5.5 in the second quarter and 7.6 in the third (conceding 32.9). The fourth is their best quarter, +1.6.

Head to head

They met on 23 October in Utah and the Jazz won 120-119. Jaren Jackson Jr. had 24 points and 9 rebounds and Keyonte George 19 points and 10 assists for Utah, while Zion Williamson (23) and Saddiq Bey (20) led New Orleans. Jackson is now out with a knee injury.

Key players and availability

Zion Williamson leads New Orleans with 21.3 points and 5.3 rebounds, with Dejounte Murray at 17.8 points and 6.0 assists in four games, Saddiq Bey on 15.6, Trey Murphy III on 14.9, Jeremiah Fears on 12.9 and 4.9 assists, and Derik Queen on 12.4 points and 7.7 rebounds. Utah's scoring comes from Keyonte George (19.6 points, 5.4 assists), Lauri Markkanen (16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds), Darryn Peterson (13.4) and Ace Bailey (12.1 points, 7.6 rebounds). Jackson averaged 16.2 in his four games.

The edge

New Orleans Pelicans. The Jazz have lost five straight, are without Nurkic and now Jackson, and give up nearly 119 points a game. Williamson, Murray and Murphy should score against a thin Utah frontcourt, and the Pelicans are at home. The pick is vulnerable because the Pelicans' defence is poor, they have lost leads late (minus 6.2 in fourth quarters), and Utah did beat them 120-119 two weeks ago. If Murphy or Poole is a late scratch, or the Pelicans' defence leaks again as it did in conceding 134 in Memphis, the Jazz can stay close with George and Markkanen.

Team news

• Nurkic out, Jackson out for weeks: Jusuf Nurkic (foot) is out for Wednesday per ESPN (3 Nov). Jaren Jackson Jr. has a torn MCL (6-8 weeks from 27 October) and Mo Bamba (right ankle) is questionable. Rotowire projects Jaxson Hayes at centre.
• Murphy and Poole expected to play: Trey Murphy III (knee) and Jordan Poole (ankle) are expected to play, per ESPN (3 Nov), but neither is confirmed. Yves Missi (knee) is out.
• Five straight defeats: Utah have lost five in a row since beating New Orleans 120-119 on 23 October, most recently 119-97 at San Antonio on Monday.