Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction

• Houston Rockets: 66%
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 34%

Pick: Houston Rockets (Medium confidence)

Match context

Houston host Minnesota on Wednesday (8.30pm ET) with the Rockets 7-1 and the Timberwolves 5-3. Houston are unbeaten at home (4-0) and last played on Monday 2 November, beating Boston 109-93. Minnesota beat Milwaukee 112-100 the same night. Neither side is on a back-to-back. Injury details are from ESPN (3 November) and Rotowire (4 November); lineups are projected rather than official.

Recent form

Houston have won seven of eight; the only defeat was 116-111 at Dallas on 30 October. Their wins include 128-110 over Dallas, 132-100 at Milwaukee and 119-98 over Oklahoma City. Minnesota began 3-0 (131-106 at Miami, 115-93 at Orlando, 117-94 against Toronto), then lost 127-125 at Cleveland, 119-114 at home to Golden State and 121-111 at San Antonio, with a 127-101 win over the Clippers in between. They are 2-2 on the road.

How they attack and defend

Both teams score heavily and defend well: Houston average 119.3 and concede 106.4, Minnesota 119.0 and 107.6. Houston's margin of 12.9 a game is slightly better than Minnesota's 11.4, but Minnesota's numbers include four games with Edwards, who is now out.

Quarter patterns

Houston are strongest in the second quarter, winning it 30.9-21.8, a margin of 9.1 points, and are narrowly behind in the fourth (29.1-29.4). Minnesota are positive in all four quarters, best in the first (+4.2) and third (+4.6), and also +2.1 in the fourth. That makes the second quarter the likely swing: if Houston's second-quarter edge holds, Minnesota can find it hard to come back.

Head to head

Houston and Minnesota have not met this season.

Key players and availability

Houston: Alperen Sengun averages 23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists, Kevin Durant 20.8, Jabari Smith Jr. 18.4 points and 6.4 rebounds, Amen Thompson 16.0, and Fred VanVleet 12.2 points and 6.8 assists. Minnesota: Edwards averaged 33.2 points in four games but is out; LaMelo Ball (16.9 points, 5.9 assists), Jaden McDaniels (16.8), Ayo Dosunmu (15.8) and Jonathan Kuminga (12.2) are the remaining leaders, and Terrence Shannon Jr. (12.0) is questionable.

The edge

Houston Rockets. They are at home, unbeaten there, with the stronger record, and Minnesota cannot call on Edwards. Sengun's passing and Durant's scoring should be enough against a Minnesota side that is 2-2 in the four games without him. It is closer than a 7-1 record suggests: the Wolves beat Milwaukee 112-100 on Monday with Ball, McDaniels and Dosunmu carrying the scoring. Houston lose Capela's minutes if his ankle keeps him out. If Minnesota keep winning the first and third quarters as they have all season, Houston will need their second-quarter edge to decide it.

Team news

• Edwards out until December: Anthony Edwards underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee on 29 October, and ESPN lists his estimated return as 21 December. Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is also out. Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) is questionable.
• Capela questionable, Adams out: Clint Capela (ankle) is questionable and Steven Adams (soleus strain) is out, per ESPN (3 Nov). Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant are projected to start on Rotowire's 4 Nov lineup page.
• Projected starters: Rotowire projects LaMelo Ball, Ayo Dosunmu, Jonathan Kuminga, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. This is not an official lineup.