Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors

Prediction

• Denver Nuggets: 56%
• Toronto Raptors: 44%

Pick: Denver Nuggets (Low confidence)

Match context

Denver (3-3) host Toronto (4-3) on Wednesday night, 4 November, with both teams off since Monday. Denver lost 110-118 at home to Portland on Monday, their second home defeat of a 1-2 home record. Toronto played the Lakers on Sunday and the Clippers on Monday in Los Angeles, losing 125-131 and then winning 125-118, and now have one day off before heading to altitude. This is the first meeting of the two teams this season. Availability is taken from ESPN's injury page (latest entries 3 November) and Rotowire's lineups page of 4 November; nothing is final until the official report closer to tip-off.

Recent form

Denver have alternated all week: a 104-91 win at New Orleans, a 127-120 win at Phoenix, then Monday's home loss to Portland. Their season began with an 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City and a 114-134 home beating by Golden State, so the results swing a long way either side. Toronto are 4-3 after a 135-92 win over Chicago and a 129-99 win over Orlando, but they lost the return with Orlando 114-121 and the 94-117 game at Minnesota. They beat the Clippers on Monday to follow a narrow defeat at the Lakers.

How they attack and defend

Denver average 113.3 points and concede 115.7, which is a points deficit across six games. They score far more at home (121.7) than on the road (105.0). Toronto average 119.1 and concede 111.4, the better numbers by some way, and they have scored 126.0 a game at home against 114.0 away. Last season Denver shot a 57.8 effective field-goal percentage, against 54.8 for Toronto.

Quarter patterns

Denver have been strongest early, outscoring opponents by 3.2 in the first quarter, but they are 5.1 down on average in the third quarter (25.2 scored, 30.3 conceded). Toronto have won the fourth quarter by 8.8 a game, 33.9 scored against 25.1 conceded, and they have scored 38.3 in the fourth quarter on average in their road games. Toronto also give up ground in the third (-2.3). Seven games is a small sample, but Toronto finish stronger than Denver do.

Head to head

Denver and Toronto have not met this season, so there is no head-to-head to lean on.

Key players and availability

Jamal Murray leads Denver with 27.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists a game, ahead of Nikola Jokić on 22.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists. Christian Braun adds 15.2 and Aaron Gordon 11.5. Scottie Barnes leads Toronto at 24.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.0 assists, with RJ Barrett on 20.7 and Immanuel Quickley on 18.0. Leonard's two games gave Toronto 19.5 a night, but he is out. Jokić is the player Toronto have no answer for if Poeltl is limited.

The edge

Denver at home are the pick, narrowly. Toronto arrive without Leonard and Bittle and with Poeltl in doubt, and they are playing their third game in four nights after two in Los Angeles. Jokić and Murray give Denver the more reliable high-end scoring, and Denver's home scoring (121.7) is much better than their road numbers. It goes wrong if Denver's third-quarter slump continues and Toronto's fourth-quarter scoring keeps them in the game, because Denver have lost two of three at home already.

Team news

• Kawhi Leonard still out for Toronto: ESPN lists Leonard (knee) as out, with a return estimated for 23 November. He played only two of Toronto's seven games this season, scoring 19.5 a night in those two. Nate Bittle (foot) is also out.
• Poeltl questionable: Rotowire's 4 November lineups page lists centre Jakob Poeltl as questionable. ESPN had him ruled out for Monday's win over the Clippers with a shoulder problem.
• Jones and Strawther out; Johnson and Diallo expected: Spencer Jones (hamstring) and Julian Strawther (knee) are out. Cameron Johnson and Alpha Diallo are listed as probable.
• Toronto played two nights running in Los Angeles: Toronto played at the Lakers on Sunday 1 November and at the Clippers on Monday 2 November, then have one day off before tipping off in Denver.