Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers

Prediction

• Phoenix Suns: 46%
• Portland Trail Blazers: 54%

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers (Speculative confidence)

Match context

Phoenix (1-4) host Portland (5-1) on Wednesday night, 4 November, with both teams off since Monday. Portland won 118-110 at Denver on Monday and now go to Phoenix, where they have not lost on the road this season (4-0). The Suns went down 113-116 at Golden State on Monday, their third defeat in a row. Availability is taken from ESPN's injury page (latest entries 3 November) and Rotowire's lineups page of 4 November; nothing is final until the official report closer to tip-off.

Recent form

Portland have won five of six, the exception a 103-124 home loss to Memphis on 29 October. Their road run is 128-120 at Sacramento, 136-129 at the Lakers, 112-90 at Utah and 118-110 at Denver. Phoenix beat Golden State 131-122 at home on 24 October and have lost the other four, including an 83-124 defeat at Portland on 21 October and a 114-125 loss at Oklahoma City. Their only home win is that one and they are 0-3 away.

How they attack and defend

Portland score 120.2 and concede 109.3, a gap of 10.9 a game, and score 123.5 on the road. Phoenix score 112.2 and concede 122.8, so they are giving up more than they score. Last season Phoenix were strong at attacking the glass, grabbing 29.8 percent of their misses, and Portland did similarly (30.3). On the evidence of this season Phoenix still cannot defend well enough to turn that into wins.

Quarter patterns

Portland have been strongest in the third quarter (32.3 scored, 26.5 conceded, plus 5.8) and the second (plus 2.7). Phoenix lose most periods: they are 4.6 down in the first quarter, 3.8 down in the second and 2.6 down in the third, and break even only in the fourth (24.4 to 24.0). Five games for Phoenix is thin, but Portland's third-quarter lead would bury a team that starts slowly.

Head to head

They met on 21 October at Portland, where the Blazers won 124-83. That is the only meeting this season, and it was in the opposite building.

Key players and availability

Deni Avdija leads Portland with 23.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists a game, followed by Damian Lillard on 19.3 and Toumani Camara on 14.2. Jrue Holiday averages 13.2 and Donovan Clingan 10.0 points with 10.3 rebounds. Morant, on 15.8 in four games, is out. Devin Booker leads Phoenix with 23.0 points and 5.2 assists, with Miles Bridges on 17.2 and Dillon Brooks on 16.8. Jalen Green averages 11.0.

The edge

Portland are the pick, with less conviction than their record suggests. They have the better defence, the better road form and have already shown they can win without Morant, with Avdija and Lillard carrying the scoring. Phoenix are 1-4 and have been outscored in the first three quarters on average, and Goodwin may be missing. The risk is that Portland's rotation is thinner without Morant and Sharpe, and Booker can take a game over at home.

Team news

• Morant out with hamstring strain: ESPN lists Ja Morant as out with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, with a return estimated for 1 December. He averaged 15.8 points in four games, and Portland won both games since he last played (112-90 at Utah and 118-110 at Denver). Shaedon Sharpe (knee) is also out.
• Goodwin and Fleming questionable: Rotowire lists Jordan Goodwin (calf) and Rasheer Fleming as questionable. Goodwin left Monday's game at Golden State after about ten minutes. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery, with a return estimated for 3 February.
• Phoenix on a three-game losing run: The Suns have lost three straight, 114-125 at Oklahoma City, 120-127 against Denver and 113-116 at Golden State.