San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks

Prediction

• San Antonio Spurs: 82%
• Dallas Mavericks: 18%

Pick: San Antonio Spurs (High confidence)

Match context

San Antonio (5-2) host Dallas (4-3) on Wednesday night, 4 November, with both teams off since Monday. The Spurs beat Utah 119-97 at home on Monday for a fifth straight win. Dallas lost 100-115 at home to Sacramento on Monday, the Kings' only win of the season so far. Availability is taken from ESPN's injury page (latest entries 3 November) and Rotowire's lineups page of 4 November; nothing is final until the official report closer to tip-off.

Recent form

The Spurs lost 104-116 to Oklahoma City and 110-114 to Houston, then won 122-106 at Dallas, 130-103 against Sacramento, 117-111 at Utah, 121-111 against Minnesota and 119-97 against Utah. Dallas have been up and down: a 110-128 loss at Houston, wins at Indiana (121-105) and Miami (113-109), a 120-96 win over Oklahoma City and a 116-111 win over Houston, then Monday's loss to Sacramento.

How they attack and defend

San Antonio score 117.6 and concede 108.3, a gap of 9.3 a game. Dallas score and concede the same, 112.3. Last season the Spurs held opponents to 52.4 effective field-goal percentage, the best defensive mark of any team here, and the results this season, with five straight wins, say that has carried on.

Quarter patterns

San Antonio win the third quarter by 3.8 (30.1 scored, 26.3 conceded) and the fourth by 2.3, so they separate in the second half. Dallas lose the second quarter by 3.1 (26.9 scored, 30.0 conceded) and are level in the third. With seven games each the pattern is not firm, but a team that wins the third quarter and a team that does not is the main gap.

Head to head

They met on 24 October in Dallas, and San Antonio won 122-106. It is the only meeting this season; the return is at San Antonio.

Key players and availability

Victor Wembanyama leads San Antonio with 25.7 points and 10.7 rebounds a game. Dylan Harper averages 18.3 points, De'Aaron Fox 15.9 points and 6.4 assists, Stephon Castle 14.7 points and Devin Vassell 11.9. Cooper Flagg leads Dallas with 25.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 6.5 assists in six games, with Kyrie Irving on 21.4 in five. P.J. Washington Jr. (13.6) and Daniel Gafford (10.1) are the next scorers. Dallas are without Lively, which leaves Gafford with less help in the middle.

The edge

San Antonio at home are the pick with some confidence. Dallas are missing Lively, Christie, Biberovic and de Larrea, with Aldama in doubt, so they cannot match the Spurs' size, and the Spurs have beaten them by 16 already this season. Wembanyama and a deep supporting cast give San Antonio more ways to score than Flagg and Irving can answer. The risk is Flagg and Irving: if both go for 25-plus and the Spurs' perimeter defence is loose, a thin Dallas side can keep it close, and San Antonio do lose a home game now and then (3-2 at home).

Team news

• Dallas short of bigs and rotation players: Dereck Lively II (foot), Max Christie (hip), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) are listed out by Rotowire and ESPN. Santi Aldama is questionable with a knee problem.
• Harris and Quaintance out: Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance are out. Neither features among the Spurs' leading scorers.
• Five straight wins: San Antonio have won five in a row, the latest 119-97 over Utah on Monday, after opening with losses to Oklahoma City and Houston.