Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction

• Sacramento Kings: 23%
• Los Angeles Lakers: 77%

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers (High confidence)

Match context

Sacramento (1-6) host the Lakers (6-2) on Wednesday night, 4 November, with both teams off since Monday. The Lakers beat Miami 138-117 at home on Monday. The Kings won 115-100 at Dallas on the same night, their first win of the season, after six straight defeats. Sacramento are 0-2 at home. Availability is taken from ESPN's injury page (latest entries 3 November) and Rotowire's lineups page of 4 November; nothing is final until the official report closer to tip-off.

Recent form

The Lakers have won six of eight: Golden State (127-105), the Clippers twice (125-117, 103-87), Utah (132-123), Toronto (131-125) and Miami (138-117). Their two defeats were 129-136 at home to Portland and 95-112 at Golden State. The Kings lost 96-121 at the Clippers, 120-128 to Portland, 112-123 to Memphis, 103-130 at San Antonio, 120-132 at New Orleans and 105-136 at Memphis, before the Dallas win.

How they attack and defend

The Lakers score 122.5 (130.0 at home) and concede 115.3. Sacramento score 110.1 and concede 124.3, the worst defensive figure among the ten teams on tonight's card. Last season the Kings allowed a 57.2 effective field-goal percentage, the leakiest defence in this set, and this season's 124.3 conceded matches it.

Quarter patterns

The Lakers win the first three quarters by 3.9, 3.5 and 5.7 and lose the fourth by 5.9 (23.6 scored, 29.5 conceded); that is where they have been giving ground. Sacramento's trouble is the middle: they are 5.1 down in the second and 8.0 down in the third (25.4 scored, 33.4 conceded). This is a small sample of seven and eight games.

Head to head

The Kings and Lakers have not met this season, so there is no head-to-head this year.

Key players and availability

Luka Dončić averages 38.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.1 assists in seven games for the Lakers, with Austin Reaves on 23.6 and Walker Kessler on 14.4 points and 10.5 rebounds. Darius Acuff leads Sacramento on 26.1 points and 6.3 assists, with Zach LaVine on 23.4 and Domantas Sabonis on 15.0 points, 14.6 rebounds and 6.9 assists. De'Andre Hunter adds 12.9. With Murray out, Sacramento's scoring runs through that trio.

The edge

The Lakers are the pick. Dončić has been scoring at a rate no one on the Kings can match, Sacramento are missing two rotation forwards and concede 124.3 a game, and the Lakers are rested and almost fully fit. The Kings did win at Dallas on Monday, so there is some life. The route to an upset is the fourth quarter: the Lakers have been outscored by 5.9 there on average, and if Sacramento are within single figures going into it, the Lakers' late fades could make it uncomfortable.

Team news

• Keegan Murray and Maxime Raynaud out: Keegan Murray (ankle) and Maxime Raynaud (knee) are out, with ESPN estimating a return around 10 November for both. Murray's last game in the feed was 23 October, when he scored 12 against Portland. Precious Achiuwa is listed as probable.
• Only Thiero out for the Lakers: Adou Thiero (knee) is out; he has been taking part in live action and the Lakers hope to have him back by the end of the week.
• Kings one win from seven: Sacramento are 1-6, their only win a 115-100 victory at Dallas on Monday, after six straight defeats by an average of 19 points.