Los Angeles Clippers vs Miami Heat

Prediction

• Los Angeles Clippers: 48%
• Miami Heat: 52%

Pick: Miami Heat (Speculative confidence)

Match context

The Clippers (1-6) host Miami (2-5) on Wednesday night, 4 November, with both teams off since Monday. Los Angeles lost 118-125 at home to Toronto on Monday, their sixth defeat in a row. Miami were beaten 117-138 at the Lakers on the same night and are 1-2 away from home. Availability is taken from ESPN's injury page (latest entries 3 November) and Rotowire's lineups page of 4 November; nothing is final until the official report closer to tip-off.

Recent form

The Clippers beat Sacramento 121-96 in their opener and have lost every game since: 117-125 and 87-103 to the Lakers, 101-108 at Oklahoma City, 101-127 at Minnesota, 112-124 at Golden State and 118-125 to Toronto. Miami lost their first four, including 106-131 to Minnesota and 109-113 to Dallas, then won 129-117 at Atlanta and 145-125 against Indiana before the loss at the Lakers.

How they attack and defend

The Clippers score 108.1 and concede 115.4, the weakest scoring of the ten teams on tonight's card. Miami score 118.1 but concede 123.9, so their games are high-scoring either way. Last season the Clippers shot a 56.0 effective field-goal percentage,.

Quarter patterns

The Clippers start well, winning the first quarter by 2.7, but lose the second by 5.0 and the fourth by 4.3 (25.0 scored, 29.3 conceded). Miami concede 33.3 in the first quarter, 2.4 worse than they score, and lose the third by 4.9. The better closer is Miami, who are plus 1.7 in the fourth. Seven games each, so it is a guide only.

Head to head

The Clippers and Heat have not met this season, so there is no head-to-head to draw on.

Key players and availability

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads Miami with 28.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists a game, ahead of Bam Adebayo (16.3 points, 8.0 rebounds) and Davion Mitchell (16.0 points, 8.0 assists). Klay Thompson averages 11.9 and Pelle Larsson 11.4. Darius Garland leads the Clippers with 20.1 points and 6.6 assists, followed by Rui Hachimura on 13.4 in five games, Brook Lopez (12.6) and Keaton Wagler (12.1). The Clippers have not had Ingram or Beal in the box score this season.

The edge

Miami are the pick, narrowly. The Clippers are on a six-game losing run, have the lowest scoring on the card and are without four rotation players, with two more unconfirmed. Giannis is listed as probable, and a fully fit Antetokounmpo has scored 24 or more in six of his seven games. The risk is Miami's defence, which concedes 123.9 a game, and if Hachimura and Jones Jr. both play the Clippers are closer to a full rotation than their record suggests.

Team news

• Four Clippers out, two day-to-day: Bradley Beal (knee), Brandon Ingram (Achilles), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (foot) and Jordan Miller (shoulder) are listed out. ESPN has Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) and Rui Hachimura (quadriceps) as day-to-day, ruled out for Monday's loss to Toronto; Rotowire does not list either for tonight, so their status is unconfirmed.
• Giannis expected, Gardner questionable: Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable and Myron Gardner as questionable on Rotowire's 4 November lineups page.
• Clippers on a six-game losing streak: The Clippers have lost six straight since beating Sacramento 121-96 on 21 October, the latest a 118-125 home loss to Toronto on Monday.