UCAM Murcia vs Força Lleida CE

Prediction

• UCAM Murcia: 82%
• Força Lleida CE: 18%

Pick: UCAM Murcia (High confidence)

Match context

Murcia host Lleida, who are listed under their iLERNA sponsor name in the league's reports. The home side trained with a full group on Friday, while Lleida are missing several players. It is the most lopsided availability picture in the Spanish round.

Recent form

Murcia finished last season 28-15 and Lleida 10-30, a very large gap. Murcia's home record was 18-4, while Lleida won only three of 21 away games. No dependable current-season results were found.

How they attack and defend

Murcia scored 90.2 and conceded 85.7 per game last season, with 58.7% effective shooting on offence. Lleida scored 83.3 and conceded 93.8, the weakest defensive return of the Spanish sides in this slate. The mismatch is on the defensive end.

Quarter patterns

Murcia won fourth quarters by 1.8 points on average last season, while Lleida lost them by 1.4 and first quarters by 2.7. That points to an early home lead that Lleida have struggled to overturn.

Head to head

The previews have Murcia leading the head-to-head 3-1 and winning the last two meetings. Two recorded recent games averaged a 21-point margin, which points to lopsided results.

Key players and availability

Lleida lack Atoumane Diagne and Adrià Rodríguez long term, and Dani García is out for about ten days. John Shurna is returning gradually with back discomfort. Murcia have Juani Marcos and Howard Sant-Roos back, with only Sander Raieste doubtful.

The edge

The pick is Murcia, on home record, the defensive gap and the availability edge. It goes wrong if Murcia's reintegrated players are rusty and Lleida's remaining shooters keep the game close into the last quarter.

Team news

• Diagne, Rodríguez and García out: Atoumane Diagne and Adrià Rodríguez are long-term absentees and Dani García is out for about ten days; John Shurna is returning with back discomfort.
• Murcia train with all 15, Raieste doubtful: Juani Marcos has recovered and Howard Sant-Roos is returning; Sander Raieste is doubtful with a muscle problem.