Joventut Badalona vs Surne Bilbao Basket

Prediction

• Joventut Badalona: 64%
• Surne Bilbao Basket: 36%

Pick: Joventut Badalona (Low confidence)

Match context

Joventut host Bilbao on Sunday morning, UTC. Bilbao are expected to have a complete squad after a virus passed through the group, while Joventut are short of two guards. The availability picture is the reverse of the home-side pick.

Recent form

Joventut finished last season 23-22 and Bilbao 27-16 in the data. Bilbao's away record of 12-9 was respectable, while Joventut's home record was 13-9. The gap in record is meaningful.

How they attack and defend

Bilbao scored 89.6 and conceded 85.9 per game last season, with 57.5% effective shooting on offence and 50.2% allowed. Joventut scored 84.2 and conceded 85.7, with 58.7% allowed to opponents. Bilbao's shooting efficiency at both ends is clearly the stronger.

Quarter patterns

Bilbao won the first quarter by 1.3 points on average and the fourth by 0.6 last season. Joventut lost first quarters by 0.7 and fourths by 1.5. The visitors were the better closers.

Head to head

Previews put Joventut ahead 25-17 over the long run. Two recorded recent games were close, with a typical margin of 4 points, so the old edge may not carry much weight.

Key players and availability

Joventut are without Boogie Ellis and Ludde Hakanson, and Ante Tomic and Yannick Kraag are waiting on the last training session. They have also signed Nikola Radicevic on a two-month contract. Bilbao should have Hlinason and Frey after the virus.

The edge

The pick is Joventut at home on the long head-to-head record, but with a reduced margin and low confidence given Bilbao's better efficiency numbers and fuller squad. It goes wrong if Bilbao's shooting holds and Joventut's thin backcourt cannot score without Ellis.

Team news

• Ellis and Hakanson out: Boogie Ellis and Ludde Hakanson are out; Ante Tomic and Yannick Kraag depend on the last training session.
• Bilbao expect full squad: Bilbao have no listed absences, with Hlinason and Frey available after a virus.