Real Madrid vs Hereda San Pablo Burgos

Prediction

• Real Madrid: 84%
• Hereda San Pablo Burgos: 16%

Pick: Real Madrid (High confidence)

Match context

Real Madrid host San Pablo Burgos on Sunday morning, UTC, and are described in the previews as the league leader. Both sides have absentees, but Madrid's remaining squad is far deeper. The league's medical report lists four Madrid players as out or pending and two Burgos players as unavailable.

Recent form

Madrid finished last season 74-33 across all competitions in the data, with a 43-12 home record, while Burgos were 18-21 with a 10-10 home record. Madrid won one of their last five games in the data and Burgos three, a small sample that sits against the season-long gap. The season-long records are the better guide.

How they attack and defend

Madrid scored 90.0 and conceded 83.9 per game, with 57.1% effective shooting on offence and 52.6% allowed. Burgos scored 87.9 and conceded 90.2, allowing 55.3%. Madrid's defence is clearly stronger.

Quarter patterns

Madrid won first quarters by 1.8 points and fourth quarters by 0.4 on average. Burgos lost fourths by 1.8. The pattern is of a home side that starts well and a visitor that fades.

Head to head

Previews put Madrid ahead 11-1 in the head-to-head and note they have won the last five meetings. Two recorded recent games averaged a 16-point margin.

Key players and availability

Madrid are without Gaby Deck and Usman Garuba long term, with Theo Maledon (right knee sprain) and Mikael Jantunen (foot) pending. Burgos lack Vlatko Cancar and Retin Obasohan, while Chase Audige and Dani Díez are expected to play. Madrid's frontcourt depth is the thing to watch.

The edge

The pick is Real Madrid, on a 43-12 home record last season, a 11-1 head-to-head and the stronger defence. It goes wrong if Madrid's injuries in the frontcourt let Burgos' guards dominate the rebounds and the game stays close into the final quarter.

Team news

• Four Madrid players out: Gaby Deck and Usman Garuba are long-term absentees; Theo Maledon (right knee sprain) and Mikael Jantunen (foot) are pending evolution.
• Cancar and Obasohan unavailable: Vlatko Cancar and Retin Obasohan are unavailable; Chase Audige and Dani Díez are expected to play despite knocks.